Bengals at Bills Win Probability, 2023 AFC Divisional Playoffs

The Importance of Scenarios When Facing Poor Odds of Success

American football is experiencing a data analytics movement. One of the most visible signs of this movement is the National Football League’s (NFL) partnership with Amazon AWS to create “Next Gen Stats” and “Stat That.” NFL coaches are also apparently increasingly turning to “the analytics” to make game critical decisions. Announcers and fans alike endlessly […]

Football

Football Analytics: Kick Extra Point, Worry Later About 2-Point Conversion

The Football Game Scenario The football game was early in the fourth quarter on November 15, 2020. The home team Carolina Panthers were down 32-17 to the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bucs). Hope came alive for the Panthers after quarterback Terry Bridgewater ran up the middle for a 3-yard touchdown. With over 11 minutes to […]

A Football Story: The Brittle Logic of Kicking Away A Scoring Opportunity

Football coaches are notoriously conservative play callers, especially at the professional level. While this behavior can produce sub-optimal game strategies, the precautions are understandable given the precarious nature of the job. A coach’s audience is prone to judge decisions by outcomes instead of the situation and information available at the time of the decision. Coaches […]